Funnel forecast
Model any funnel before you spend on it. Add the steps in order with the rate from the previous step, set the traffic and cost, and see what lands at the bottom.
| Step | Rate | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Visitors | 100% | 10,000 |
| Opt-in | 30% | 3,000 |
| Sales page viewed | 20% | 600 |
| Checkout started | 10% | 60 |
| Purchase | 60% | 36 |
How the math works
Each step count is the previous count times the rate of that step, starting from visitors. The last step is treated as the purchase.
- Revenue = customers × price
- Ad spend = visitors × cost per visitor
- Profit = revenue minus ad spend (no product cost; use the break-even ROAS calculator for that)
- CAC = ad spend ÷ customers
- ROAS = revenue ÷ ad spend
- Break-even CPC = revenue ÷ visitors, the cost per visitor at which profit is zero
Rates multiply, so a small change early in the funnel moves the bottom more than the same change late. That is why the first step is usually the one to test.
Open this as a canvas
The same numbers, on a canvas with a node per step. Put your real pages in, let the Setup Assistant install tracking, and watch the forecast column turn into actuals.
Open this as a canvasPreview the matching templateOther calculators
Break-even ROAS
Price, cost of goods, shipping, and fees in. The ROAS you need to make zero and the most you can pay per order.
LTV, CAC, and payback
Order value, purchase frequency, margin, and CAC in. Lifetime value, LTV to CAC, and months to pay back a customer.
Webinar funnel math
Registration, show, pitch, and close rates in. Registrants, buyers, cost per registrant, and profit out.